• Question: what do you think is the success rate of Mars One is going to be?

    Asked by JAMIES to Heather, Helen, Hugh, Jane, Julian on 7 Nov 2014. This question was also asked by Josie87, DaisyB123.
    • Photo: Julian Onions

      Julian Onions answered on 7 Nov 2014:

      I think it’s a risky venture, but I think we should take more risks in space travel. So I’m in favour of it. I think if I was offered the chance to go, I might even consider taking it!

      I think someone else said it better than me…

      A planet is the cradle of mind, but one cannot live in a cradle forever. Konstantin E. Tsiokovsky

    • Photo: Hugh Osborn

      Hugh Osborn answered on 7 Nov 2014:

      Almost zero.

      Unfortunately, I just don’t think it will make it off the ground. That’s not to say I don’t *really* want it to. I will be the first to congratulate them if the team manage to get a Mars mission together. But it looks unlikely

      What MarsOne has is a brilliant way to fund a space mission. Selling TV rights to a reality-style space TV show is a fantastic idea, and I would definitely watch it! The problem is that the funding idea is pretty much all they have. They are relying on other companies like SpaceX and NASA to build the parts and launch the rockets for them. All of which will require huge amounts of money way before a TV show starts bringing anything in.

      There are also a load of other unsolved problems; Launching thousands of tonnes of equipment into space; Shielding astronauts from radiation on the 9 month journey; Landing large capsules safely on the surface; Surviving independently on the surface of Mars for many years; etc. Not even Tony Stark could fix all these problems and build the largest spacecraft ever assembled in only 8 years.

      However, I think humans will be on Mars within 30 years. Space agencies like NASA and the Chinese Space Agency, along with private companies like SpaceX, are all looking towards the Red Planet. And within the next couple of decades, the technology should be there to launch humans out of the Earth-Moon system for the first time in history.

    • Photo: Jane MacArthur

      Jane MacArthur answered on 7 Nov 2014:

      To generate a success “rate”, you have to have at least one viable “attempt”, which to me would be defined as attempting a launch of a viable spacecraft and crew. This should only happen when solutions have been found to the many issues Hugh mentions, which I agree are more likely to be fully solved in the 20-30 year time frame with the current funding outlook.
      Their company launch and progress so far could be counted as ‘an attempt’ but I honestly do not think it will make it to a launch pad, and I am doubtful any government/jurisdiction would allow a one-way mission to go ahead (or at least, launch from their soil).
      I think it has had success in gaining public interest and support, and also in focussing attempts into solving some of the problems associated with travelling there. Unfortunately, reality TV even at its heights does not scratch the surface of the financing needed for Mars One, to launch multiple huge spacecraft with provisions for a mini colony. Also TV audiences generally tend to lose interest over time, particularly given the long travel times to Mars. It would be difficult to prevent the crew turning the cameras off once they had left Earth and there are many people worried about the scenario of events turning bad still being televised.

      We definitely should go to Mars someday though and I’m excited about the steady steps of progress being made. My money would be on NASA, China or SpaceX ahead of MarsOne, or better still, a fully collaborative international mission!

    • Photo: Helen Johnson

      Helen Johnson answered on 10 Nov 2014:

      Yep, I agree with everything that’s been said so far. Sadly I think we’re still a long way off being able to send people to Mars, there are still so many huge challenges to be faced. This doesn’t mean I don’t think we should try, though!

      I’m really happy that space travel has captured our imaginations once again, and I think we should keep up every effort to solve these logistical problems and come up with creative new ways to overcome the obstacles. Science makes the largest leaps when we attempt the ‘impossible’ 😉

      Would you like to go to space, MrJJ?

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